How Soon Will the Fed Cut Rates?

In this video we analyze the history of the time between the last rake hike in a cycle and the following first rate cut. Over the last 13 cycles, the median and average time is 5 months. Interestingly, in 6 of the 13 cycles the time between was 2 months or less. Five of those 6 occurred during inflationary periods.

So the Fed often shifted policy quite quickly during inflationary periods. Perhaps that is due to the nature of inflation being quite volatile. In addition, the Fed cut started cutting rates during those periods when the rate of inflation was high! And we did not have a debt issue then like we do now.


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